Kaduna Must Seize Demographic Window Now or Risk Crisis, Says Policy Analyst Goje
From:Femi Mustapha
Kaduna State must accelerate its demographic transition to avoid worsening poverty and social instability, policy analyst Yusuf Ishaku Goje has warned, calling for urgent investment in reproductive health and youth empowerment to harness the state’s demographic dividend.
In an article titled _Seizing the Moment: Accelerating Kaduna’s Path to Demographic Prosperity_, Goje said the state currently stands at a critical juncture in the second stage of the Demographic Transition Model, a phase defined by rapidly declining mortality rates while birth rates remain high. This imbalance, he noted, has produced a significant youth bulge that simultaneously creates a vast reservoir of human energy and places immense pressure on social services, infrastructure, and food security.
Goje, an active citizen, OGP enthusiast, and member of Civic Impact for Sustainable Development Foundation, warned that without a strategic shift toward the third stage of transition, where birth rates begin to decline, the state risks a high dependency ratio that could stifle long-term economic growth and deplete public resources.
“The fundamental engine of a demographic dividend is the successful transition from a high-fertility society to a stable, low-fertility environment,” Goje stated. He added that Kaduna’s 2024 Demographic Dividend Roadmap has identified the necessary pillars of health, education, economic empowerment, and governance required to harness this potential. “However, this is not merely a statistical shift; it is a socio-economic evolution that requires deliberate policy intervention,” he said.
He cautioned that if the state remains stalled in this early stage, the growing population will continue to outpace the creation of jobs, health facilities, and classrooms, leading to increased poverty and social instability. Historically, Goje explained, nations that have successfully harnessed this dividend have done so by accelerating their progress through the transition stages, primarily by improving child survival and shifting toward smaller, more investment-intensive family sizes.
Goje noted that in Kaduna, the recent adoption of the National Chart of Accounts at the local government level now provides a transparent framework to track these critical investments with precision. “By tagging expenditures for adolescent health and vocational training, the state can measure its progress toward stability while ensuring that every naira is directed toward the core drivers of human development,” he said.According to Goje, pushing Kaduna firmly into the third stage of transition requires a policy environment that prioritizes domestic investment and the empowerment of young women and adolescents, particularly regarding their reproductive health and rights. “Accelerating an inclusive demographic transition requires improved legal frameworks that support gender equality and bodily autonomy,” he added.
He identified the ongoing public financial management reform across the 23 Local Government Areas as the technical entry point for this change. A forensic analysis of the 2026 local budgets, he revealed, shows a stark gap: only eight local governments allocate funds for family planning. The allocation totals N24.35 million, a negligible fraction of the combined N152.4 billion local government expenditure.
Goje said this data supports an evidence-based campaign to demand demographic ring-fencing, securing protected funding for reproductive health choices. “Strengthening the capacity of civil society at the local level ensures that supply gaps do not limit these choices, institutionalizing accountability within the very communities where the dividend must be won,” he stated.
“If Kaduna fails to lower its dependency ratio, the risk of a demographic disaster characterized by unemployment and social crisis will worsen,” Goje warned. He called for proactive measures to ensure the transition is managed equitably by moving the conversation from the state capital to every local government capital.
“By embracing a green and digital economy alongside reproductive empowerment, Kaduna can move from a focus on basic survival to high-level skill acquisition,” Goje said. “Now is the time for every stakeholder to act, ensuring the Demographic Dividend Roadmap becomes a living reality that secures a stable and prosperous future for all.”
